Valuebet, or how to get an advantage over the bookmaker?

What is the goal of the betting player bookmakers ? Make a big profit? Sure. Earn regular profits from the game? Absolutely. But for a true typist, something else is important: to beat the bookmaker. All these goals can be met by skillfully searching and betting valuebety . If you take the game seriously, you need to know what is it valuebet how to correctly calculate its value and how to find it most easily .

Valuebet – what is this?

It must be admitted that the deadline valuebet (or value bet ) scrolls through on betting websites extremely often. Therefore, wanting to explore the secrets of the bookmaker, you just need to know, what is it valuebet . Simply put valuebet it is a bookmaker's bet that has value ( value ). Of course, that doesn't explain much. You still need to know when the BET has the mentioned value. That's what happens then, when the odds placed by the bookmaker are inflated in relation to the probability of a given type that is, when the Beech makes a mistake. Is that even possible? Yes, what is more, it happens very often, and typists try to catch such opportunities, because they give them an advantage over the bookmaker. It is worth knowing that betting valuebets this is a way to making a profit in the long term . Therefore, the search for such valuable bets is often used by advanced players, but the chances of success are also less experienced typists. So how best to take up the game using valuebets ?

How to calculate v aluebet ?

To calculate the value of a given bet, you do not need a specialist calculator. Valuebet we calculate from 2 values: the amount of the odds set by the bookmaker and the objective probability of occurrence of a given result. The formula for the value of a particular bet is the product of these 2 variables, i.e.:

v = k * p

where v is the value of the bet ( value ),

k-betting odds (in decimal form),

p-objective probability of the analyzed type (percentage divided by 100 ).

The key to success is to the value of v is greater than 1. because that's when we're dealing with valuebet , i.e. a bet with positive expected value. So:

v > 1

Does betting with a v value of less than or equal to 1 miss the goal? Of course not, such bets as the most can be won (and on the other hand valuebety they may lose). As mentioned, this is a game over a long period of time – a game based on valuable bets brings profit in general, because it is the player who has the advantage over the bookmaker. If v is less than 1, then bookmaker he gains an advantage over the typer, so in the long run he will gain, and the player will lose.

How to estimate the probability of an event?

Of course, the above explanations do not fully answer the question of how to estimate valuebet . While it takes a while to check the betting odds of a particular bet, correctly estimating the probability of an event occurring is already an art. How can this value be assessed objectively and fairly?

Methods for determining chances

There are many ways to do this, but not all of them are equally effective and it is certainly good to use more than one method. So you can analyze tables with statistics – for example, in football matches checking m.in. number of points scored, goals scored, number of wins (also broken down into home and away wins), the average number of goals in a match, the results of individual players, etc. The analysis should also take into account the line-up, where the match will take place, information about the form of the entire team and individual players, and even weather forecasts. A more detailed analysis also includes side issues such as player injuries, coach change, team motivation level, season intensity, etc. However, during the analysis be very careful – not all information will really matter for the outcome of the match, so it is necessary to proper selection. It is worth noting that bookmakers themselves often do not take into account these more detailed data, so checking them can pay off. And since we're at the bookies, it's worth it too. observe how they behave, how the rate of a given event over time is formed . In a situation where the odds for a given event are decreasing (or increasing), such a trend can be a signal to bet at a high rate as soon as possible, although this does not have to be the rule. Therefore, each case must be analyzed individually.

However, all this takes a lot of time, so it is also worth supporting yourself with ready-made solutions that they offer sites comparing the odds of different bookmakers . In this way, you can quickly catch the error of the bookmaker, for example, against the background of other odds offers. It can also be useful so-called. predictors results matches, the results of which are based solely or mainly (these are more advanced, using special algorithms) on statistical data. Also available on the internet types of other players - both paid and free. It should also be noted that advanced players sometimes rely on their intuition which results from a wealth of experience in betting. Being guided by such hunches can actually have positive effects, especially in the case of live betting.

What else do you need to remember?

At the end of the section devoted to estimating the probability of a selected Event, 2 important remarks. First, determine the value of this variable, we should not suggest what odds were issued by the bookmaker . It is not uncommon for players to follow the misconception that low odds specified by the bookmaker are tantamount to high odds of winning and vice versa, high odds are small odds of winning. However, this is not the case. Unfortunately, even if we know about it, the height of the exposed course can subconsciously distort our own assessment of the probability. Therefore, in principle, the optimal solution would be to determine the chances of a given event in advance and only later check what the bookmaker's odds are.

Secondly, no matter how many methods of estimating probability we use and how much time we devote to it, we will never be able to determine it very precisely. Sport is unpredictable and the final outcome of sporting events is sometimes determined by completely incomprehensible factors. Therefore defined the probability is always approximate and what follows, calculation valuebet it also gives estimates only.

How to find valuebet ?

As it happens in the bookmaker, knowledge of the theory alone will not make us learn to play effectively. The same goes for valuable bets – to find out, how to find valuebet it takes a lot of practice. It is safest to do this initially „ dry” that is, without risking your own money. It is much more reasonable to write down each bet that we evaluate as valuebet and then check the result. After finding, say, 100 such bets and verifying their effectiveness, we will see how good our current search ability is valuebets .

Regardless of whether we practice in this way, or we already want to bet, proceeding to the so-called. value betting . it is worth remembering a few things. If we're going to bet value bet , we should have accounts for many bookmakers . Thanks to this, we will provide ourselves with much more opportunities to find a valuable bet and quickly bet on it. Secondly, it is necessary monitoring of bookmakers ' offers and catching bigger differences . Sometimes it happens that all analyzed bookmakers offer odds on a given event oscillating, for example, around 2.0, but a certain bookmaker breaks with a significantly higher rate, for example, 2.4. In this case, it is almost certain that we have found valuebet . You can also narrow search field , focusing on the selected type of sporting events - here you can recommend less well-known leagues (either lower or niche leagues for Poles, such as Asian leagues). In their case, bookmakers especially often make mistakes, if only because, as a rule, they do not pay as much attention to correctly determining the odds, as is the case with more popular leagues. If we become experts on lesser-known leagues, it will be easier for us to find a bet with an underestimated course, that is, valuebet .

Of course, in the search for bets with a positive expected value, other typers can also help us. It is worth visiting industry forums or social media sites dedicated to betting. In such places often appear experienced players who value betting they have "in the little finger" and are happy to share their types with other users. Still, of course, we have to judge for ourselves whether the recommended type is real valuebet or not, however, if we can track down a reliable typist, many of his types should turn out to be a hit.

Nor should we be discouraged by initial failures. The more types we analyze, the more effective and easier it will be to find valuebets, and the profits from the game will become more satisfying. However, before we get to this level, we should only bet on the most certain events.

Valuebet - what courses?

You may also wonder whether valuebet this happens more often in the case of bets with low or high odds. Naturally it high odds encourage mistakes of bookmakers and here they are easiest to find. However, it should be borne in mind that betting having high odds is associated with the risk of scoring long strings of losers. Good players who skillfully choose bet rates should nevertheless go out on the plus side.

What it looks like value betting when it comes to finding bets with lower betting odds? Here it is much more difficult to find valuebet and you definitely need to show great analytical skills. Some players specialize in valuebets with low rates, which brings them a steady profit.

Is everyone valuebet does it mean profit?

Finally, let us return to the point that we have already signalled. We must be aware that the fact that we have found valuebet that doesn't mean we have a win in our pocket. Even if we correctly estimate the probability of a particular type, and after substituting for the formula we get a bet value greater than 1, we still we don't know what the outcome of the meeting will be. . Valuebet it can be a hit or miss bet, meaning that having a positive expected value is irrelevant to the outcome of an individual bet. W v alue betting the point is that the player increases the likelihood of making an overall profit from the game in the long run, rather than from individual bets . Thus, assuming that the typer can find the true valuebet . it is betting on each such bet increases the chances of making a profit from the game over a longer period of time.

Valuebet - summary

Search and betting valuebets this is a specific way of playing, which consists in using the advantage over the bookmaker, which is guaranteed by the mistakes made by this Beech (underestimating the odds). Although v aluebet it does not provide a win on a single bet, in a certain period of time, placing more correctly defined valuable bets brings the player a profit.

To effectively find valuebety , it is necessary to be able to fairly accurately estimate the probability of occurrence of a given event and to search for mistakes of bookmakers. There are many methods that help in this, and to increase the chances of success, it is worth using several complementary methods. The formula itself used to calculate the value of the bet is very useful especially for novice players. Over time, when the typer develops the ability to see undervalued rates, calculator valuebet it'll be in his head. However, before this happens, it must be done repeatedly calculation valuebet checking its effectiveness. It must also be remembered that not everyone valuebet it is worth betting and not everyone wins.